Starbucks and other major chains had a weak 2024. | Photo: Shutterstock.
Chain restaurant sales grew just 3% in 2024, according to the 2025 Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report, as a consumer frustrated by high fast-food prices shifted spending from traditional, big-name players to smaller, up-and-coming names or they stayed home altogether.
The 500 largest chains in the U.S. generated $437.1 billion in 2024. But the 3.1% increase did not come close to the 4.1% menu-price inflation last year, meaning the group as a whole lost a percentage point of customer traffic. Given the 1.6% unit growth during the year, traffic on a same-store basis was worse.
Forty percent of chains on the Top 500 reported sales declines last year. And more than half of chains generated sales growth lower than the rate of menu-price inflation.
Some of those disappointing numbers came from the chains at the very top. McDonald’s, Starbucks and Chick-fil-A, which cumulatively account for a quarter of the Top 500 chain sales, each had substandard years in 2024, at least for them. Technomic is releasing the list to its subscribers this week. The full list will be available on Restaurant Business by late May.
McDonald’s, the largest chain in the world, grew sales by just 0.6% amid consumer frustration over prices and then an end-of-year e. coli outbreak in Colorado. Starbucks’ sales fell 0.5% in 2024—its worst year since the Great Recession—following strikes, a social media backlash and concern over the company’s service.
“The biggest reason is the relatively meager performance of our two biggest operators,” Lizzy Freier, senior director, menu research and insights with Technomic, said at the Restaurant Leadership Conference on Monday.
Chick-fil-A’s sales grew 5.4%, which was comparatively stronger than the other two. But that was also the weakest year in at least 20 years for the chicken-sandwich chain.
But general weakness was pervasive among the largest chains. Of the 20 biggest concepts, 12 generated sales growth that was weaker than menu prices. And six of the 20 largest chains generated sales declines, including Subway (down 3.8%), Panera Bread (down 5.1%), Pizza Hut (down 0.5%), Sonic (down 2.7%) and KFC (down 5.2%), along with Starbucks.
Among industry sectors on the Top 500, fast-casual chains grew the most, with sales up 9%. No other sector generated sales growth matching menu-price inflation. Quick-service chains, beset by frustration over high prices and weakness by the largest chains, grew sales just 2.3% last year. Casual-dining chains, which faced numerous bankruptcies of large chains like Red Lobster and TGI Friday’s, grew just 1.3%.
The performance of fast-casual chains was accentuated by the strong performance of brands like Chipotle Mexican Grill and Raising Cane’s.
Chipotle was by far the best performer among the 10 largest chains, growing system sales by 14.7% to $11.2 billion. It also moved up past both Burger King and Subway. Sales at the sandwich giant, the largest chain in the U.S. by unit count with 19,770 restaurants, declined 3.8% to $9.5 billion.
Further down is No. 18 Raising Cane’s. The fast-casual chicken chain’s system sales grew 32% in 2024, to nearly $5 billion. The company did this with a combination of unit growth (up 14%) and higher average unit volumes, which are now $6.6 million. The fast-casual chain not only debuted on the Top 20, it surpassed the quick-service chain KFC, which is now the fourth largest chicken chain in the country after its sales declined 5.2% to $4.9 billion.
“Raising Cane’s, you didn’t think about them five, 10 years ago,” said Kevin Schimpf, senior director of research and insights at Technomic. “Raising Cane’s is fun, it’s cool, I like it, it’s new. I’ll spend whatever because it’s tasty and it’s got a great sauce. So it certainly does help.”
KFC by the end of this year will likely fall to the fifth spot on that list, Wingstop is also surging. The chicken-wing chain’s system sales grew 37% to $4.4 billion. It is now No. 24 on the ranking, having surpassed Arby’s, which struggled to a 6.3% sales decline last year.
The performance of Chipotle, Raising Cane’s and Wingstop highlights a key theme in 2024: Consumers dramatically shifted their visits away from more traditional restaurant concepts to newer, up-and-coming brands with more focused menus around specific items or service styles.
Limited-service chicken chains thrived last year, for instance. Among those brands in the broader Top 1,500 list, sales grew nearly 9% in 2024. At limited-service Mexican chains, sales grew 8.6%. In addition to Chipotle, strong performance by Taco Bell—which grew sales by 8.1% last year to $16.2 billion.
The “other” category, including everything from quick-service bowl chains to fast-casual Mediterranean brands like the surging Cava (No. 63, with sales at just under $1 billion, up 33%) generated 7.4% sales growth.
On the other hand, limited-service burger, pizza and sandwich chains on the Top 1,500—more traditional fast-food—grew sales less than 1% last year.
Coffee chains saw a substantial amount of share shift last year. Sales at coffee chains on the Top 1,500 grew 3.3%, which was under menu price inflation, the likely result of surprising weakness at Starbucks. But that sector also included some of the fastest-growing chains in the U.S., notably 7 Brew, which has been the fastest-growing chain in the country the past three years.
7 Brew’s sales grew 163% last year, including 78% unit growth and strong volume growth. It now generates more than $500 million in system sales.
But there are also brands like No. 44 Dutch Bros (26%) and No. 77 Scooter’s (29%). “Those drive-thru chains are just proliferating at a rate I’ve never seen before,” Schimpf said. “They can expand so rapidly because they’ve got a small footprint. They don’t have a ton of equipment needs. They don’t need that many employees. They just kind-of popped up everywhere.”
Sales at full-service chains grew last year despite bankruptcies and large-scale closures at several brands. Full-service sales on the Top 500 grew 1.1% last year to $88.3 billion. But they also closed 1% of their restaurants last year.
Strength in the full-service chain sector largely depended on the concepts’ price point. Among lower-priced family dining or “midscale” concepts, sales last year were flat at $17.4 billion. Casual-dining chain sales grew 1.3% to $66.2 billion. Fine-dining chains grew 2.4% to $4.7 billion.
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