Average unit volumes are now running above $4 million. | Photo: Shutterstock
Chili’s may have just pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in restaurant history.
Same-store sales at the bar and grill chain surged more than 31% from October to December, marking its best quarter since the period just after COVID and accelerating a streak of double-digit same-store sales increases that began last April.
The growth once again was driven by a mix of social media buzz, value-based advertising and a renewed focus on restaurant operations and atmosphere that seemed to snowball as the year progressed.
And it came even as many of Chili’s casual-dining competitors have struggled. Executives said Wednesday that the 1,571-unit chain is now the leader in casual-dining traffic share, according to data from industry researcher Circana Crest.
The performance put an exclamation point on a remarkable turnaround at Chili’s under Kevin Hochman, who took over as CEO of parent company Brinker International in 2022.
The former KFC executive led sweeping changes to Chili’s menu and operations aimed at making its restaurants easier to run and improving the customer experience. The brand then took to the airwaves with a $10.99 “3 for Me” meal deal and a compelling message: Chili’s is a better value than fast food.
While that tactic was winning with inflation-weary consumers, the brand was also earning street cred with Gen Z. About halfway through last year, its Triple Dipper appetizer platter, a staple on the chain’s menu for years, went viral on TikTok, where young customers showed off their “cheese pulls” with the Triple Dipper’s fried mozzarella sticks.
Chili’s Triple Dipper business doubled, driving up its average check. In the fourth quarter, the appetizer accounted for 14% of total sales, a 3-point improvement from the previous period.
Chili’s average unit volumes now sit at $4.2 million, up from $3.6 million a year ago. Profits are also up: Chili’s restaurant-level margins hit 19.1% in the quarter, though executives said that they will likely settle into the mid- to high-teens for the year.
It has all coalesced into a perfect storm of traffic, sales and cultural relevance unlike anything Chili’s—and arguably the entire industry—has seen in years.
It was enough to make an audience of staid restaurant analysts positively giddy Wednesday. During an earnings call with management, one analyst called Chili’s turnaround “the best one of all time in the space.” Another said Hochman will write a great book about it someday.
To put the performance into perspective, Chili’s two-year same-store sales growth for the quarter was about 37%, comparable to Popeyes’ two-year stack when it debuted its famous chicken sandwich in the fourth quarter of 2019. (Wingstop has both chains beat, with 45.5% two-year growth in the third quarter of 2024.)
Chili’s executives said that not only has that sales growth carried into 2025, but they also believe it’s sustainable long-term because of the improvements it has made.
“What’s happening is that young people are coming in after they’ve seen us on TikTok, and they’re like, ‘Wow, this experience is really good,’ and it becomes a part of the rotation,” Hochman told analysts during an earnings call Wednesday. “I think that’s why you’ve seen the longevity in the results and the acceleration, not just kind of a boom-splat that you typically would see without the operational investments that we’ve made in the business.”
Indeed, Hochman revealed that Chili’s customer experience metrics have actually improved even as the volume to its restaurants, and the corresponding demands on its staff, has risen. The chain’s key “guests with a problem” score fell to 2.9% in the quarter, from 3.5% a year ago.
“These are record numbers with the traffic increases,” Hochman said. “So we feel very, very good about the direction we’re headed.”
And the brand is not taking its foot off the pedal. This quarter, Chili’s will add a new item to its 3 for Me lineup featuring a “famous, very familiar taste profile,” Hochman said. He noted that the chain has been advertising 3 for Me for a year, and that it’s now time to bring some “fresh news” to the offer. Chili’s will also relaunch its popular fajitas this quarter and will then focus on revamping its ribs.
Chili’s is also continuing to make changes to its operations and menu. Since the midpoint of last year, it has dropped 13 menu items and 12 SKUs; upgraded to a higher-quality chicken breast; and switched to making its guacamole in-house. It has also removed the prep stations used for the It’s Just Wings virtual brand, creating more space and less cleaning in a high-traffic part of the kitchen.
And to cope with the realities of busier restaurants, the brand is also speeding up plans to replace its conveyor-belt ovens with Turbochef ovens in every restaurant. The Turbochefs are faster and cook food more evenly, are easier to clean and are more reliable, Hochman said. Chili’s has been making the switch as needed when old ovens break down, but will now make a proactive investment to complete the project systemwide.
“We’re at this point with the increased traffic and the ability to invest to say, let’s just do that move now so that we can really support the teams with the things they need to deal with this increased traffic,” Hochman said.
Chili’s has now established a playbook for casual-dining success in a tough environment. And competitors are taking note. Applebee’s in November launched a $9.99 combo meal, $1 less than Chili’s. Red Robin, which is working on a turnaround of its own, has also begun promoting daily specials at discounted prices.
In a meeting with Chili’s VPs of operations recently, Hochman broached the topic.
“I said, ‘Are you guys worried about that number, the $9.99?’ And they all just started laughing,” he said. “I was like, ‘Why are you guys laughing?’ And it’s like, because we know how strong [we are]. We’ve been in the gym, we’ve been working out and we are not afraid of competitors undercutting us. I think that’s what you’re seeing in these results.”
Brinker International stock was up more than 12% midday Wednesday.
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